National Grid forecasts higher electricity capacity margin this winter
National Grid has predicted an increased surplus electricity margin in its Winter Review and Consultation for 2017-18. Compared to 6.6% last winter, the system operator said its preliminary analysis indicated the margin for 2017-18 will be in the range of 7.2% to 9.9% (3.7GW – 4.9GW) on a transmission demand basis. It noted that some generators currently available were not successful in the capacity market auctions, meaning these units may not be available this winter, with this uncertainty reflected through the use of the margin range. The document added the importance of embedded generation and demand response modelling in the GB security of supply assessment is “clearly growing”. National Grid also expects there to be sufficient gas supplies available to meet demand this winter from a wide range of supply sources.